PGREDS Cultural Modeling Tool

Gnosys and SAIC have developed a tool - Political Geographic Religious Economic and Demographic Simulation (PGREDS) - that will allow a scenario designer to bring to bear multi-disciplinary models  to define civilian and non-military sides in scenario generations and execution systems.  The strength of tools is three-fold:

1)       In the incorporation of leading-edge, multi-disciplinary models and its ability to include, without limitation, any number of new models.

2)       In its ability to resolve multiple, potentially conflicting answers from many different models into a single, consistent resolution. 

3)       In its ability to easily interface with existing scenario generation and execution systems.

With PGREDS, the process of executing models and resolving them may be repeated until the “rules of resolution” are finely honed to a scenario.  In order to make use of these results, Gnosys and SAIC will build interfaces to the pre-eminent mission rehearsal systems such as OneSAF.

PGREDS Product Walkthrough

1)       Pick 2 countries from the map by using the toolbar buttons.  The geographic location of the episode is known as the “Episode Country”; there exists a button of the same label.  Click this button, and then select the country where the episode took place.  Similarly, select a country against which the terrorist episode was directed.  Use the “Target Country” button on the toolbar. The PGREDS screen may look something like this:


2)       Define the Episode. From the Menu bar, select “Episode” choice.  A pop-up menu will appear with currently only one choice.  Select the “Edit/ViewEpisode”.  The following menu will appear:

 Definition Menu

Select predefined characteristics of the terrorist episode or type them in the input space provided.

3)       View or Edit the PGREDS factors that define the terrorist episode.  Each model in PGREDS has its own set of factors.  There are thus at least 5 factors sets corresponding to the five models integrated in PGREDS (Political Geographic Religious Economic and Demographic models).  The Resolver also has a factor set into which it resolves the factor sets of the other models.  To see any of these factors, go to the Menu bar and select “Factors” choice.  A pop-up menu will appear from which the user can choose to view factor corresponding to:

·         Political Model

·         Geographic Model

·         Religious Model

·         Economic Model

·         Demographic Model

·         Resolved factors


Choosing Factors



4)       Select to view the “Geographic” factors from the menu.  A new popup will appear that enables viewing the factors in categories.  This is intended to de-clutter the presentation of what can be many different factors.  Currently, the categories correspond to the models but this need not be so.


Outside of the predefined types, there is the ability for the user to type in a category.  This is in anticipation of the expansion of the variety of categories in the future.  Select “All Factors” from the predefined types.


5)       The following menu will appear: Edit FactorsThe Factors’ values can be of any type: string, integer, fraction, etc.  

For demonstration purposes, change the “Ethnic Distrust” entry to a value over 100, say 101.

6)       Run the Geographic Model.  From the Menu bar, select “Factors” choice.  A pop-up menu will appear with the various models to analyze the episode.  These are the models that will be incorporated from research institutions into PGREDS.  Any one of them can be executed, or all of them can be executed at once.  Currently, these models do nothing notwithstanding the pop-up that indicates that they have been executed successfully.

7)       Repeat steps 3) through 6) for the Religious Model.

8)       Resolve the models.  Had the models executed, the Factors of the episode would have changed.  (these can be inspected at any time via the “Factors” menu choice as described in Step 3.).  Each model run would have produced its own set of Factors as answers.  These exist in PGREDS.  However, they must be unified into one answer. To do so, they must be merged (or resolved)  using rule based inference techniques.  Currently PGREDS has two sets of rules: Geographic and religious model resolution rules.  (These are test prototypes.)

From the Menu bar, select “Resolver” choice.  A pop-up menu will appear as shown below.  Select which factor sets to resolve amongst each other. 
Model menu

9)       Review the Factors by choosing “Edit/View Current Resolved Models” as indicated in Step 3.  The Resolver would have changed them according to its rule-based inference.  For example, check the “Ethnic Distrust” entry. It will have been changed.

10)    Some other features include

a.        Saving the factor set in Microsoft Access (Under the file menu) for later use.  These factors can then also be inspected or changed via Access.  The db file is in db6.mdb in the Program Files/GnosysSAIC/ directory.

b.       Searching for countries on the map via the “?” toolbar

c.        Zoom-in/Zoom out and Pan

d.       Selective display of map detail according to zoom level.